Global
US equity markets are closed in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday and will have a shortened session on Black Friday. Black Friday marks the unofficial beginning of the Christmas shopping season, with retail momentum expected to be strong. According to the National Retail Federation, the US’ largest retail trade group, a healthy increase in retail sales is projected, with shoppers estimated to collectively spend ~USD1.0trn in November and December. This represents a growth rate of between 3.7-4.2% compared to 4.3% in 2024. This year’s shopping season kickoff comes as companies navigate an uncertain economic environment defined by US led trade tensions and tariffs. Elsewhere, crude oil prices were little changed. Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that there is no final peace plan draft but signalled an openness to discussions. He agreed that US President Donald Trump’s proposals could serve as “the basis for future agreements” to end the Russia-Ukraine war. The conflict, ongoing for nearly four years, is expected to increasingly strain the Russian economy. Indeed, Ukrainian military strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have exacerbated a crisis in the domestic fuel market, leading to an export ban aimed at easing domestic market pressures.
Market Watch
This morning, Japan’s Tokyo November CPI was released, with headline CPI edging lower to 2.7% YoY, down from 2.8% in October, in line with consensus expectations. Meanwhile, core CPI and the Supercore CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, remained broadly stable at 2.8% YoY. On the Asian calendar, upcoming release include the Philippines’ October trade data, Thailand’s October current account balance, and India’s 3Q25 GDP print. The US Federal Reserve will enter a communication blackout period starting from 29 November 2025.
Indonesia
Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto said Indonesia and China have reinforced economic ties through the Two Countries Twin Parks initiative, which aims to deepen industrial integration. At a China-Indonesia investment forum this week, both sides signed 16 project commitments worth IDR36.4tn (around USD2.1bn), covering steel exports, nickel, coal, seafood processing, solar power, energy storage, AI, and industrial estates. The initiative is designed to boost investment flows, strengthen value chains, and create jobs by combining Indonesia’s resource and labour advantages with China’s technology and financing capabilities.
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